- The historical CAPEX employed and a comparison with other toll roads.
- The terms of the concession agreement and the potential revocation.
- Toll prices and a comparison with other Italian and European toll roads.
- Traffic analysis and comparison with other Italian and European toll roads.
Once an independent technical team discovered irregularities in the maintenance of the Morandi Bridge, some investors required Inicia2 to analyse:
- The grounds to revoke the concession.
- Economic value of the revocation, for that opinion there was an economic and operational analysis of whole the concession network.
- The economic impact of the different proposals made by ASPI to the Italian Government. ASPI (Autostrade per l’Italia). After the Italian Congress resolution on a potential revocation of the concession, Inicia2 provided a financial impact of the different alternatives.
Atlantia is the Italian market leader in concessions and owner of ASPI, Aeroporto di Roma and 50% of Abertis. After the collapse of the Morandi Bridge, different investors asked Inicia2 to:
- Analyse the impact of a potential revocation over the debt of Atlantia.
- Analyse the economic impact of different proposals of ASPI over the dividend sharing and ultimately over the debt of Atlantia.
Once the Italian Government showed the determination to revoke the concession and the acquisition of Abertis was concluded, Inicia2 provided different works around:
- Holistic cash flow analysis of the concessions of Atlantia (special attention to ASPI, Aeroporto di Roma and 50% of Abertis.
- Revocation value.
- Analyse the economic impact of different proposals of ASPI over the dividend sharing and ultimately over the debt of Atlantia.
With the first impacts of COVID-19 and with an approximate revocation value of ASPI, Inicia2 was hired to:
- Evaluate the traffic of all the assets and the impact over the cash flow generation.
- Evaluate the solvency of the group with special focus on the debt.
Roads in Italy. The Italian Government was very concerned about the state of the roads and railways and wanted to merge ANAS (Italian Road Authority) with RFI (Italian Railway Authority) to generate a stronger body to achieve better management and financing. Inicia2 participated in a project to evaluate the merger of the road and railways authorities and the potential new project financing.
Abertis, the toll road world leader, was in preliminary talks to sell the company to ACS or Atlantia. An infrastructure fund was potentially interested in financing the transaction and was seeking an in-depth analysis of the toll road operator, excluding Cellnex. After the COVID-19, Inicia2 also conducted an in-depth analysis of the traffic of most of the concessions of Abertis and the potential impact over the cash generation and solvency of the corporate debt.
Greenfield opportunities in Spain. Spain announced in 2017 a plan to upgrade some key motorways under concessional agreements. An infrastructure fund wanted to invest in greenfield concessions and find a construction partner. Inicia2 searched for new projects to be released and identified local construction companies to partner.
Brownfield opportunities in Spanish roads. An infrastructure fund was interested in the acquisition of road concessions. Inicia2 identified 20 toll/shadow roads analysed them. In the second phase, five assets were analysed in-depth with a valuation approach.
Sacyr Concessiones. An institutional investor was interested in the acquisition of the subordinated debt of Sacyr connected with the concession portfolio. Inicia2 was engaged in the traffic, financial analysis and financial modelling of a portfolio of shadow toll roads of Sacyr Concesiones.
Spanish toll roads “Radiales” (toll roads around Madrid) were under insolvency proceedings, and a group of financial investors were interested in the acquisition of the debt. Inicia2 participated in the preliminary analysis of these toll roads, analysing the traffic, construction claims, legal liabilities and evaluating the Government responsibility. In a second stage, Inicia2 participated in the analysis of the R-2, R-3 and R-4 to make a bid to acquire the debt.
Autostrade Douro Litoral was a Portuguese concession around Porto which was under insolvency proceedings. Different investors were interested in the project finance debt of the defaulted concession, and Inicia2 was engaged in a preliminary understanding of the concession. In a second stage, Inicia2 was part of the due diligence process and in particular was involved in the financial analysis traffic analysis of toll roads in Portugal, construction claim analysis, debt service analysis.
Brisal is the owner of A-17, a Portuguese toll road connecting the outskirts of Porto, which had serious financial troubles due to the low level of traffic. Different investors were interested in the project finance debt of the defaulted concession, and Inicia2 was engaged in a preliminary understanding of the concession.
Third Bosphorus Bridge is a Turkish concession where the two developers, Astaldi and Ictas, were involved in a financial crisis. Debt investors engaged Inicia2 in the analysis and valuation of this infrastructure in an environment of country opacity and currency crisis. In a second stage, Infrastructure funds wanted Inici2 to provide a first approach to the valuation of the infrastructure.
GOI (Gebze-Orhangazi-Izmir) a stretch of 426 km of the motorway O-5 connecting Istanbul with Izmir was developed by a consortium of constructors, hoping to sell the toll road after its conclusion. However, the financial crisis of some of the consortium members and the currency crisis of Turkish lira led to a rush to sell the asset. Inicia2 advised certain financial investors in the approach to value this asset.
San Jose Concesiones. Grupo San Jose just restructured its debt, and the main lenders wanted an independent view of the performance of the concession business with a focus on the collateral value of the debt. Inicia2 participated in this analysis, providing research on traffics, construction claims, and some financial aspects of the working capital.
Series of Masterclasses of how to build a financial model to value infrastructure projects. Inicia2 has also provided masterclasses to value and measure the performance of infrastructures (with demand risk, with availability risk, renewable energy with green certificates and renewable energy with government subsidies, renewable energy with operational risk and also subject to fossil energy prices).
